Might Gordon Brown hold a general election in 2008? The Times certainly thinks so, having the headline "Election set for 2008" on the front page. This speculation is fuelled primarily by Gordon Brown's appointment of Douglas Alexander as general election co-ordinator.

But will Gordo really risk the position of Prime Minister that he was waited for so long to get his grubby paws on? He has waited for at least thirteen years for this position, and he isn't likely to want to lose it or compromise his power by holding an election before he has to. Brown very much appears to be averse to any risk taking, or to making decisive moves in any direction. He has had plenty of opportunities in the last decade to make a move on Tony Blair and take the premiership, but has never moved to take the decisive action, so with this backstory, why would he take the unnecessary risk of an early election? He can hold off on an election until June 2010, until which he can govern fully or risk a majority of 66 on an early election which could propel him from power, almost certainly followed by the Labour leadership, or give him a minority government, a coalition with the Lib Dems, or a substantially reduced majority?

Of course the government can call an election whenever they want, but I can't see Brown willing to risk it. He will either call an election immediately upon coming Prime Minister, [ie. in two days' time] or wait almost as long as he possibly can. I would personally be surprised if Gordo held an election before spring 2009. Spring 2008 is simply too early.

There are, of course, other things to take into account. Labour's financial straits being one of them. They simply can't afford to hold a general election yet - and probably won't until at least the summer 2008. David Cameron may tell Gordo to "bring it on" but neither is yet ready for an election. Brown needs to separate himself from Blair and be seen as separate, and Cameron needs time in order to draw up his policies and both fully redefine the Conservative Party in the eyes of the electorate, and reassure core supporters that it is still the Conservative Party and that he is a Conservative and not Blair-lite.

Neither will be ready by spring 2008, and so it helps no-one for an election too early. Neither party really wants an election for a good year, but neither can any of them say it out loud.

Sources: The Times, BBC, The Telegraph, The Guardian