A Populus poll puts just a three-point gap between the Conservatives and Labour, with the voting shares being: CON 37% (-3): LAB 34% (+3): LD 19%(+2). This is bad, bad news for the Tories, dropping below the 40% mark and coming some close to Labour in percentage terms.

However, unlike the Times extract above from their website claims, this certainly does not show that "voters still prefer Labour as the Government". More people want the Conservatives as the governemnt and Cameron as Prime Minister than Labour and Brown. It is just the issues with our political system and the massively disproportionate [aka anti-Tory] way the constituencies are currently set out, meaning that a 7% swing is needed for any sort of Tory majority in the Commons.

The Tories are ahead, but not by anywhere near enough. They need to push and keep pushing. Despite the adage that elections are lost by governments and not won by Oppositions, they need to set themselves out as a complete and authoritative alternative government to Labour. And soon. They are making good progress, but the progress needs to be picked up and run with.

Mike Rouse, who is carrying out polling on the Conservative Future elections [which you can sign up to take part in here], has the results of the first poll, held just prior to the Bristol hustings which are taking place tonight.

And the results for Chairman support is surprisingly one-sided, with one candidate in particular getting a huge level of support. However, whether this is a genuine reflection of his support or not remains to be seen - and it will be interesting to see how the poll results change in the run up to the election.

The level of support for National Chairman is as follows:

• Richardson, Matthew = 18.9%
• Rock, Michael = 73.0%
• Williams, Daryl = 8.1%

The rest of the results can be seen at Mike's blog and here.

How much will these results effect the candidates, if at all? Maybe there will be some feedback after the Bristol hustings tonight, and maybe some change in the next poll result, which you can sign up to take part in here.

Since so many - like me - are unable to attend the Bristol hustings, maybe someone [like Mike?] Will live-blog the event or provide a summary of what has been said afterwards.

UPDATE: Mike also has an open yet anonymous poll which anyone can fill out without needing to register for the rest of the polling here.

UPDATE 2: Via John Moorcraft, there is a review of the hustings at CF Diary and photos at Nick Webb's blog. No mention of Mike's poll, though...

Are you a member of Conservative Future and interested in taking part in some polling during the run up to the election? If so, sign up with Mike Rouse.

Go, fill in the form, and participate in the first reliable Conservative Future polling!

Not only are his closest allies telling Brown that he time is very nearly up, but so is the electorate.

So 48% agree that the next government should be a Conservative one. Also, 51% to 31% regard David Cameron as the more likeable of the party leaders, and that Cameron "has a big lead in every demographic and region except Scotland, where Mr Brown is narrowly ahead (by 46 per cent to 43 per cent)." That's a big lead in every demographic and region except Scotland.

This surely is very bad news for the future of Gordon Brown and this Labour government. But a very very good news for the Conservatives.

Image nicked from Guido

It seems that Labour's fortress is under siege:

That's so not good news for Brown. If even Labour's heartlands of "the North", where most of Labour's Cabinet ministers have their seats, is under serious threat, then the possibility of a meltdown must seem all too likely.

And to a Conservative, this news just brings on a smile.

The future's bright, the future's blue.

It has now been reached, with YouGov giving the Conservatives 45% and a 13-point lead, the largest lead that YouGov have ever given them. If this poll was to be replicated at a general election, the Conservatives would get a 96 seat majority in the Commons.

45% is the target that Cameron set for the Conservatives and the level of support that is widely regarded as necessary to ensure a working majority of MPs. They have now reached it, which is fantastic news.

But let's not get over-excited - this is just one poll, and the new Lib Dem leader has yet to be announced which is bound to increase their poll rating at least in the short-term. And Gordon Brown has had a very bad time of late, which is bound to impact on Labour's poll rating, and it is thus likely if not inevitable that it will rise at some point.

Even so, it is very good news for the Conservatives. And we can all just hope that 45% becomes the standard rating the Tories get in future polls!

13% lead! Hopefully we can see this sort of poll more often...

Thirteen days ago, a Sunday Telegraph poll put the Conservatives on 43%, Labour on 36%, and the Lib Dems on 14%. Today, a Daily Telegraph poll today puts the Conservatives on 41%, Labour on 38%, and the Lib Dems on just 11%. These were done by two different pollers - ICM for the Sunday Telegraph, and You Gov for the Daily Telegraph - and so show that the Tories are consistently beating Labour, for now at least.

This means that the Tories are now on top. Maybe not by much, but they are. Their lead after party conference and Brown chickening out of an election is nore than just a blip. The very least that can be said for now is that it is a sustained blip.

The biggest issue with the polls has to be for the Lib Dems. They are now severely behind where the level they were at at the last general election - and even dumping Ming hasn't helped them yet. They will get a bounce in the polls when either TweedleClegg or TweedleHuhne is selected to be leader, but it won't last. The Lib Dems go up and down in the polls despite what they do, rather than because of it - as they are, after all, primarily a protest party. They might nick a few points of both sides, but a huge number from neither.

This is a good poll for the Conservatives, a bad one for the Lib Dems, and a not-so-good-but-it-could-be-worse poll for Labour. The challenge is for the Conservatives to hold and extend this lead, and for the Lib Dems to prevent internal panic and to use this point as a measure of how well their new leader - whichever he is - is doing.

Via Iain Dale and ConservativeHome, a Sunday Telegraph poll puts the Conservatives on their highest ICM poll since 1992:

Conservative: 43%
Labour: 36%
LibDems: 14%

From lows to highs, eh! Just a few weeks ago, we were trailing by eleven points, and now we're leading by seven! Hopefully this high will last longer than Brown's momentary lead and be able to be built on to ensure that we win the next general election - whenever Gordon Brown decides to call it.

Some thought that Brown's eleven point lead meant an end to Cameron and the Conservatives as a whole. How wrong they were! But recent polls do show that they are pretty volatile at the moment - except for the Lib Dems who are constantly trailing in the low double figures. Thus it seems that Brown's indecision over calling an election and his recent policy plagiarism have marred him in the electorate's eyes.

We can but hope this this isn't just a blip in the polls, but a sign that the Conservatives are properly back on top properly and for good.

Image: ConservativeHome